By Peter Zeihan
Reprinted with permission from Stratfor
The global recession is the biggest development in the global system in the year to date. In the United States, it has become almost dogma that the recession is the worst since the Great Depression. But this is only one of a wealth of misperceptions about whom the downturn is hurting most, and why.
Let’s begin with some simple numbers.
As one can see in the chart, the U.S. recession at this point is only the worst since 1982, not the 1930s, and it pales in comparison to what is occurring in the rest of the world. (Figures for China have not been included, in part because of the unreliability of Chinese statistics, but also because the country’s financial system is so radically different from the rest of the world as to make such comparisons misleading. For more, read the China section below.)
But didn’t the recession begin in the United States? That it did, but the American system is far more stable, durable and flexible than most of the other global economies, in large part thanks to the country’s geography. To understand how place shapes economics, we need to take a giant step back from the gloom and doom of the current moment and examine the long-term picture of why different regions follow different economic paths.
The United States and the Free Market
The most important aspect of the United States is not simply its sheer size, but the size of its usable land. Russia and China may both be similar-sized in absolute terms, but the vast majority of Russian and Chinese land is useless for agriculture, habitation or development. In contrast, courtesy of the Midwest, the United States boasts the world’s largest contiguous mass of arable land — and that mass does not include the hardly inconsequential chunks of usable territory on both the West and East coasts.
Second is the American maritime transport system. The Mississippi River, linked as it is to the Red, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee rivers, comprises the largest interconnected network of navigable rivers in the world. In the San Francisco Bay, Chesapeake Bay and Long Island Sound/New York Bay, the United States has three of the world’s largest and best natural harbors. The series of barrier islands a few miles off the shores of Texas and the East Coast form a water-based highway — an Intercoastal Waterway — that shields American coastal shipping from all but the worst that the elements can throw at ships and ports. More on Economic Recessions and World Geography
Filed under United States Economy by Jonathan Ginsberg
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I would like to print these words of wisdom on a card and tape it to the mirror of the President and every member of Congress:
You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.
–Dr. Adrian Rogers
Filed under United States Economy by Jonathan Ginsberg
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By Reva Bhalla, Lauren Goodrich and Peter Zeihan
Reprinted with express permission from Stratfor
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev reportedly will travel to Turkey in the near future to follow up a recent four-day visit by his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, to Moscow. The Turks and the Russians certainly have much to discuss.
Russia is moving aggressively to extend its influence throughout the former Soviet empire, while Turkey is rousing itself from 90 years of post-Ottoman isolation. Both are clearly ascendant powers, and it would seem logical that the more the two bump up against one other, the more likely they will gird for yet another round in their centuries-old conflict. But while that may be true down the line, the two Eurasian powers have sufficient strategic incentives to work together for now.
Russia’s World
Russia is among the world’s most strategically vulnerable states. Its core, the Moscow region, boasts no geographic barriers to invasion. Russia must thus expand its borders to create the largest possible buffer for its core, which requires forcibly incorporating legions of minorities who do not see themselves as Russian. The Russian government estimates that about 80 percent of Russia’s approximately 140 million people are actually ethnically Russian, but this number is somewhat suspect, as many minorities define themselves based on their use of the Russian language, just as many Hispanics in the United States define themselves by their use of English as their primary language. Thus, ironically, attaining security by creating a strategic buffer creates a new chronic security problem in the form of new populations hostile t o Moscow’s rule. More on Turkey and Russia on the Rise
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Mad Money's Jim Cramer speaks argues that President Obama's ambitious stimulus package is draining the wealth from our citizens. He speaks the truth.
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Filed under United States Economy by Jonathan Ginsberg
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By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart
Stratfor.com
reprinted with permission from Stratfor
Last week we discussed the impact that crime, and specifically kidnapping, has been having on Mexican citizens and foreigners visiting or living in Mexico. We pointed out that there is almost no area of Mexico immune from the crime and violence. As if on cue, on the night of Feb. 21 a group of heavily armed men threw two grenades at a police building in Zihuatanejo, Guerrero state, wounding at least five people. Zihuatanejo is a normally quiet beach resort just north of Acapulco; the attack has caused the town’s entire police force to go on strike. (Police strikes, or threats of strikes, are not uncommon in Mexico.)
Mexican police have regularly been targeted by drug cartels, with police officials even having been forced to seek safety in the United States, but such incidents have occurred most frequently in areas of high cartel activity like Veracruz state or Palomas. The Zihuatanejo incident is proof of the pervasiveness of violence in Mexico, and demonstrates the impact that such violence quickly can have on an area generally considered safe. More on Violent Mexican Gangs Heading North
Filed under Border Security by Jonathan Ginsberg
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By George Friedman
Stratfor.com
re-published with express permission
While the Munich Security Conference brought together senior leaders from most major countries and many minor ones last weekend, none was more significant than U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. This is because Biden provided the first glimpse of U.S. foreign policy under President Barack Obama. Most conference attendees were looking forward to a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration. What was interesting about Biden’s speech was how little change there has been in the U.S. position and how much the attendees and the media were cheered by it.
After Biden’s speech, there was much talk about a change in the tone of U.S. policy. But it is not clear to us whether this was because the tone has changed, or because the attendees’ hearing has. They seemed delighted to be addressed by Biden rather than by former Vice President Dick Cheney — delighted to the extent that this itself represented a change in policy. Thus, in everything Biden said, the conference attendees saw rays of a new policy. More on Little Change So Far in U.S. Foreign Policy
Filed under American Foreign Policy, G.W. Bush Administration, Iran, Obama Administration, Russia by Jonathan Ginsberg
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If there are any accountants out there who read this blog - I understand that individual tax returns are due on April 15, unless that date falls on a Saturday or Sunday, or unless the IRS extends the deadline because of a natural disaster.
I understand that there is a new exception - you need not file your returns or pay any outstanding taxes due until you are formally nominated for a cabinet position in the Obama Administration.
Filed under Miscellaneous observations by Jonathan Ginsberg
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The following was published in the Federal Register earlier this month:
Presidential Determination No. 2009-15 of January 27, 2009 Unexpected Urgent Refugee and Migration Needs Related To Gaza Memorandum for the Secretary of State
By the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, including section 2(c)(1) of the Migration and Refugee Assistance Act of 1962 (the "Act"), as amended (22 U.S.C. 2601), I hereby determine, pursuant to section 2(c)(1) of the Act, that it is important to the national interest to furnish assistance under the Act in an amount not to exceed $20.3 million from the United States Emergency Refugee and Migration Assistance Fund for the purpose of meeting unexpected and urgent refugee and migration needs, including by contributions to international, governmental, and nongovernmental organizations and payment of administrative expenses of Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration of the Department of State, related to humanitarian needs of Palestinian refugees and conflict victims in Gaza. You are authorized and directed to publish this memorandum in the Federal Register.
(Presidential Sig.)
THE WHITE HOUSE, Washington, January 27, 2009
[FR Doc. E9-2488 Filed 2-3-09; 8:45 am]
It is truly gratifying to learn that $20 million of our tax dollars has been authorized to help Hamas terrorists migrate to the United States. This is so outrageous as to defy comment.
Filed under American Foreign Policy, Obama Administration, Terrorism by Jonathan Ginsberg
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The AP reports today that Milton Parker, a co-0wner of New York City's most famous restaurant, the Carnegie Deli, has passed away at age 90. The cause of death was "respiratory failure" which most likely means that he died of old age. Not a stroke, not a heart attack, not cancer, not diabetes. A short, portly gentleman, Mr. Parker most likely consumed meat every day. What does this tell us? I will take good genes over good greens any day of the week.
I live in Atlanta, Georgia, but my wife, kids and I generally visit New York City at least once a year. No stop in the City would be complete without a visit to the Carnegie for a giant corned beef sandwich. Thanks to my friend Howard Beer for alerting me to Mr. Parker's passing.
Carnegie Deli Corned Beef Sandwich
Filed under Miscellaneous observations by Jonathan Ginsberg
